There has been quite a bit of consternation lately about an Ipsos-AP poll that showed Nader receiving 6 percent of the vote in a matchup against Kerry and Bush. Obviously, if Nader received support in this range in November it would be very bad indeed for the Democrats.

To which I say: relax everybody. Nader's not going to get that kind of support and he's unlikely to even match the support he received in 2000. In fact, I think his fate is more likely to be like that of Pat Buchanan in 2000, who also drew some early support in polls, but would up with very few votes (.43 percent) because his candidacy had no real constituency or plausible rationale.

Consider these data. In late 1999, when Buchanan, like Nader today, was the only third party candidate being tested in polls, he was drawing anywhere between 5 and 10 percent support when matched up against Gore and Bush. Then, in late spring, when horse race polling resumed and Nader was also included in the matchup, he dropped considerably, but was still drawing 3-5 percent support. Of course, by the time the election rolled around, even that support collapsed and he wound up with less than half a percent of the vote.

Obviously, almost all of that early Buchanan support was extremely soft and very easy for Bush to peel away once push came to shove and Republicans who were supporting Buchanan focused on taking back the White House. That's going to be Nader's fate in 2004: he may pull the early 4-6 percent here and there in polls (though hopefully most pollling organizations will choose to exclude this peripheral candidate without a party or likely ballot access in many states from their questions) but that support will be very, very soft, declining as the election gets closer and essentially disappearing on election day. In the end, a candidacy that lacks a distinct constituency and a rationale that even passes the laugh test (Kerry and Bush: no difference!) will receive the support level it so richly deserves--almost nil.

Actually, another finding from the Ipsos-AP poll is of more political signficcance than Nader's 6 percent. Right now, just 35 percent of Americans say the country is going in the right direction, while 60 percent say it is off on the wrong track. That's down from 44 percent right direction/52 percent wrong track last month and puts Bush in the serious danger zone for incumbents. And this poll was taken before Friday's incredibly bad jobs report (just 21,000 new jobs).

In short, forget about Ralph and keep your eyes on the prize.