That appears to be the attitude of Bush's political team, given that the president has now announced his support for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. This move has been widely viewed as an effort to satisfy the GOP's conservative base and that judgement seems about right.

Why would the Bushies do this? Because they're very worried about fragmentation of the GOP base, as questions pile up about Bush's free-spending ways and deviations from the conservative agenda (e.g., the immigration bill). They can ill afford such fragmentation in a situation where the Democratic base is consolidating, swing voters are moving away from the GOP and Bush is running behind in trial heats against the probable Democratic challenger. Sure, the GOP spinmeisters talk a good game about how none of the polls really matter at this point; and of course the Democrats are running ahead what with all their free publicity at this point in the campaign cycle; and so on. But they know better.

In fact, it's quite unusual for an incumbent president to be running behind the challenger at this point in the cycle. According to a recent Gallup analysis, every incumbent president back to Harry Truman was leading their eventual opponent (and all other possible opponents) at this point in an election year with the lone exception of Gerald Ford in 1976. And of course, he lost.

So they're right to be worried. And shoring up your base by endorsing a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage is a natural reaction. But is it smart politics?

Probably not. In fact, it's exactly the sort of thing the Bush strategists wanted to avoid in an election year--having to cater to the conservative base and risk alienating swing voters in the process.

And alienate they will. The latest Newsweek poll shows that, while the public is split about evenly, a strong majority of the most volatile age group, those 18-29, supports either full marriage rights for gays or civil unions (58 percent to 36 percent opposition). Similarly, while a healthy majority (56 percent) of the public supports either full marriage rights for gays (23 percent) or leaving decisions on the issue to the states (33 percent) , rather than a constitutional amendment (39 percent), views among young people are positively lop-sided: 66 percent for full marriage rights or state decisions, compared to 30 percent for a constitutional amendment.

And then there are independent voters, the quintessential swing group. In just-released ABC News/Washington Post data, a question on a constitutional amendment vs. state decisions elicits an even split among the public as a whole, but a 58 percent to 35 percent majority against an amendment among independents. Similarly, an Annenberg Public Policy Center poll question about support or opposition to a constitutional amendment against gay marriage shows an overall 48 percent to 41 percent majority against an amendment, but a larger 52 percent to 37 percent majority against among independents.

So, this attempt to satisfy their base is likely to come at a price among other voters they need to win the November election. Of course, they will immediately seek to rebuild Bush's image as a tolerant, compassionate conservative, as they have done before, through speeches, gestures and other political tools they have at their disposal. But every move like this makes that rebuilding task a little bit harder. And the November election draws ever closer.