The latest Democracy Corps report is titled "New World: Bush in Peril". While Democracy Corps can sometimes be a bit over-optimistic in their poll interpretations, in this case their optimism seems justified.

In their latest survey, they find some significant evidence that the tide is turning. For example, they find that the Democrats now have a 5 point lead in party ID, a lead that first emerged in their polling five months ago and now seems solid. DR has been arguing for awhile that this was occurring and Democracy Corps is kind enough to credit him with correctly predicting the emergence of this trend.

The poll also finds that likely voters give Democrats a 7 point lead in a generic Congressional ballot and give Kerry a 4 point lead over Bush. In addition, by 13 points, voters say the country is off on the wrong track and by 8 points they say they want the country to go in a "significantly different direction" than the direction Bush is headed in. They also say they want to go in a significantly different direction in a wide variety of specific areas: by 32 points on the federal budget; by 25 points on health care; by 22 points on prescription drugs for seniors (more evidence that the GOP has lost the debate on the prescription drugs bill); by 22 points on jobs in America; by 15 points on the economy; by 11 points on taxes (another highly significant finding); by 10 points on creating more employment opportunities; by 9 points on income and wages; and by 9 points on middle class living standards. (For more detail on these sentiments, see Democracy Corps' recently-released report on focus groups with swing voters.)

Democracy Corps also finds that independents and voters in swing areas are moving rapidly away from Bush. In their Bush-Kerry trial heat, independents favor Kerry by 11 points, voters in swing states favor him by 6 points and voters in swing congressional districts back Kerry by 4 points. And, on the question about whether the country should go in a significantly different direction, independents favor a different direction by an impressive 23 points (60 percent to 37 percent), voters in swing districts favor a new direction by 11 points and voters in swing states want the same by 10 points.

The latest Newsweek poll has more on the increasingly chilly climate for Bush. The poll finds his approval rating at 48 percent, with 52 percent saying they would not like to see him re-elected, compared to just 43 percent who say they would (an all-time low in this poll for Bush). He also receives poor ratings on tax policy (45 percent approval/47 percent disapproval); the situation in Iraq (45 percent/44 percent); the economy (41 percent/52 percent); health care (37 percent/50 percent); and (a new and interesting question) job creation and foreign competition (32 percent/55 percent).

So, if it is morning in America again, it definitely isn't the kind that Ronald Reagan had (or proclaimed) in 1984. It's a new morning, whose results, both for the GOP and for the country as a whole (thank goodness), seem likely to be quite different.