Several recent polls provide a wealth of information about how the political terrain is shifting against Bush and the GOP.

Start with the latest Pew Research Center poll. According to this poll, Bush's favorability rating has dropped from 72 percent last April to 53 percent today. And, when respondents were asked to supply a one word description of Bush, they were evenly split (36-36) between those who supplied negative or positive descriptions. That compares to almost a 2:1 split (52-27) in favor of positive descriptions last May. And the most common negative description today? “Liar”, which nobody even mentioned last May.

Bush's approval rating in the poll has fallen to 48 percent (down 8 points since mid-January), the lowest Pew has ever recorded. His approval rating in the last month has dropped has dropped 9 points among white women, 10 points among those 30-49 years of age, 11 points among women under 50, 11 points among white Catholics (a critical swing group), 12 points among high school graduates, 12 points among white non-evangelical protestants and 16 points among those in rural areas.

The Pew poll has Kerry and Bush tied in a trial heat question (47-47), while other current polls show Kerry ahead, but this is still quite a shift from Pew's mid-January poll, when Bush was ahead by 11 points (52-41) in a matchup with Kerry. Republicans haven't budged in the last month, while Democrats have consolidated behind Kerry in the trial heat question and independents have dramatically shifted away from Bush, going from 52-37 Bush to 51-41 Kerry, a swing of 25 points. Similarly, political moderates have gone from 49-43 Bush to 55-39 Kerry, a shift of 22 points.

Another huge shift has been among white non-evangelical protestants, who have gone from 57-36 Bush to 49-46 Kerry, a swing of 24 points. It's also interesting to note that Bush's current lead over Kerry among white men is 16 points--believe it or not, a sign of weakness. In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 24 points among this group.

Big shifts among independents can also be seen in changing evaluations of the political parties. Last June, independents gave the Democratic party a 55 percent favorable evaulation and the Republican party a 54 percent favorable rating. Now 65 percent of independents rate the Democratic party favorably, compared to just 50 percent favorable for the Republicans. And it is entirely because of this shift among independents that the overall public now rates the Democrats more favorably than the Republicans (58 percent to 52 percent).

It's also intriguing to note that independents rate the state of Massachusetts (76 percent favorable) more highly than the state of Texas (70 percent). Hmmm.

More on the shifting political terrain tomorrow.....