Poor John Kerry. First, he gets beat up for having so many people think he's electable. You see, that's just the "bandwagon effect" or, for those who wish to dress that point up in fancier intellectual clothing, it's an electoral "bubble", just like the run-up of the Nasdaq. To put it in the simplest possible terms, the reason people think he's electable is 'cause other people think he's electable. Of course, this dynamic is always an important part of any frontrunner's success, so criticizing Kerry for benefiting from the bandwagon effect didn't really have a lot of force. Things that are always true are....well, always true.

But, in the aftermath of the Wisconsin primary, the Kerry-doubters have shifted their line of attack to something with a bit more bite: hard evidence (in their view) that Kerry is less electable than the other viable Democratic candidate, John Edwards.

The basic rap couldn't be simpler and DR pointed out the factoid upon which the rap is based on Tuesday night: Edwards, as he has consistently done, performed much better among declared independents than among Democrats in the Wisconsin primary. And he not only performed better, he actually beat Kerry by a solid 12 points among these voters, 40 percent to 28 percent

Conclusion: since you need to reach independents, not just Democrats--who presumably would support either candidate--to win a general election, Edwards is clearly more electable than Kerry.

To which DR says: maybe. But then again, maybe not. Here are a number of objections which, taken together, suggest the Edwards electability thesis is not quite the irrefutable case that some Kerry-doubters seem to think it is.

1. Edwards may have beaten Kerry among independents in Wisconsin, as well as South Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee. But Kerry beat Edwards among independents in Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri and Virginia.

2. Independents who vote in the Wisconsin Democratic primary are likely to be fairly liberal. Therefore, just as you can argue that Wisconsin Democrats are likely to vote for either Kerry or Edwards, so are these kind of independents, once they are confronted with the choice between Edwards or Kerry and Bush. So Edwards' advantage over Kerry among Wisconsin independent Democratic primary voters does not necessarily imply a real advantage among the much larger universe of general election independents.

3. When it comes to general election independent voters, Edwards will not have the advantage of little press scrutiny and almost all favorable publicity, like he did in Wisconsin. The Wisconsin primary was a poor test of Edwards' ability to hold up under the spotlight, since the spotlight was almost all on his opponent.

4. General election independent voters, unlike independents in the Wisconsin primary, are likely to be quite sensitive to the national security issue and the credentials of the Democratic candidate to be commander-in-chief. Kerry has a huge advantage here over Edwards and it baffles DR that some observers are glossing this over. The ability of Kerry to highlight real combat experience and campaign with war veterans adds a great deal to the Democrats' ability to appear tough enough to defend the nation's security. Not to mention the implicit comparison with Bush's cushy, politically-connected, non-combat gig in the National Guard, a comparison which is unflattering for Bush, no mater what happens with the AWOL story. Independents who don't like Bush, particularly working class independents, are going to be looking for a way to feel safe about voting Democratic in this election. Kerry has a leg up over Edwards in his ability to provide the assurance.

5. Edwards may have done well among independents in Wisconsin, but, judging from the publicly-released exit poll data, it appears to have been mostly among upscale independents. The Democrat in the general election will have to do well among working class independents as well (not to mention keeping working class Democrats in the fold). Kerry actually has a good track record of support from working class, especially traditional blue collar, voters in Massachusetts. As Michael Crowley points out in an excellent article in the new issue of The New Republic, Kerry has repeatedly shown he can connect with those kinds of voters, where his military and combat experience and friendships with veterans loom large, even when other politicians and elites typecast him as aloof and out-of-touch.

6. In the latest CBS News poll, Kerry wins among all voters by 5 points, but among independent voters by 10 points. But isn't it true that voters don't like Kerry and don't cotton to him personally?

In the latest Time/CNN poll, by 68 percent to 28 percent, the public says that "likeable" applies to Bush, which is good....but not quite as good as the 69 percent to 18 percent by which public says that Kerry is likeable.

And look at other characteristics. In the latest Gallup poll, Kerry has a net rating (applies-doesn't apply) of +33 on being a strong and decisive leader, about the same as Bush's +32; a net rating of +38 on being honest and trustworthy, far higher than Bush's +13; a net rating of +20 on shares your values, compared to Bush's +7; and a net rating of +16 on "generally agrees with you on the issues you care about", compared to Bush's -3.

And check out this one: Kerry has a net rating of +57 on "did his duty for the country during Vietnam", while Bush's net rating on doing his duty is +2. +57 vs. +2. Wow.

Gallup also finds that 15 percent say Bush's actions when serving in the Guard make them less likely to vote for him, compared to 4 percent who say it makes them more likely. With Kerry, on the other hand, it's just the reverse: 19 percent say his combat experience in Vietnam makes them more likely to vote for him, compared to 2 percent say it makes them less likely.

So......Don't get me wrong, I like John Edwards. And it's certainly a respectable hypothesis that he is more electable than John Kerry. But, to put it mildly, I don't think the results of the Wisconsin primary put that hypothesis into the realm of established fact. Indeed, the alternative hypothesis, that Kerry is more electable than Edwards, seems just as plausible, if not more so, once you put those results in a broader context.