Sure he does. Not a particularly good one, but a chance nonetheless. With his strong second in Wisconsin--at this point, 40 percent to 34 percent with 99 percent of the precincts reporting--he has defied expectations and damped Kerry's momentum, at least temporarily. The last pre-election poll had Edwards down 27 points to Kerry, so closing that gap to 6 points or so is a pretty amazing accomplishment.

And with Dean's distant third in the primary (at 18 percent), it seems likely he'll either drop out or become a complete non-factor anyway. If Edwards can pick up a disproportionate amount of Dean's erstwhile support, that help him turn this opening into a serious, rather than token, two person race (though note that in Wisconsin voters who said they had supported Dean in the past gave about the same number of votes to Edwards and Kerry).

That said, Kerry has now won 15 of 17 contests and leads Edwards by over 400 delegates, 608-190. And the latest CBS News poll, conducted February 12-15, has him trailing Kerry nationally by 53 percent to 7 percent among likely Democratic primary voters.

Of course, we all know how quickly momentum can shift against the national front-runner this campaign season--though the primary process is now so far along that such a shift is far less likely against Kerry than it was against Dean. Still, it's interesting to note that the Rasmussen national tracking poll of Democrats, for what it's worth, has Edwards narrowing the gap with Kerry from 51-18 to 43-25 in the last three days.

Looking at the exit poll results, there are many intriguing results, some of which make Edwards look good (though more as a general election candidate than a Democratic primary candidate), and some of which do not.

In terms of standard demographics, Kerry and Edwards pulled about the same amount of white support (37 percent), with Edwards doing slightly better among white men and Kerry doing slightly better among white women. But Kerry clobbered Edwards among both black voters (55-15) and latino voters (46-23).

Kerry also carried every income group up to $75,000 with his largest margins among the lowest income voters (50-22 among those with less than $15,000). But Edwards beat Kerry among those between $75,000 and $100,000 (41-34) and tied him among those with $100,000 and over.

Edwards also lost every education group up to some college, but tied among college graduates and carried those with a postgraduate education (36-32).

Consistent with these patterns on education and income, Edwards carried the 21 percent of voters who said their family financial situation had gotten better (37-30), but lost among the 75 percent of voters who said their financial situation had gotten worse (45-32) or stayed the same (39-36).

Looking at partisanship and ideology, Edwards, as he has consistently done, performed much better among declared independents than among Democrats. In fact, he managed to actually beat Kerry among independents, which he has not typically been able to do, by 40 percent to 28 percent. But he lost among Democrats (62 percent of voters) by 48 percent to 21 percent

Edwards also won among conservative voters (37-30) and just barely lost moderate voters (41-39). But liberal voters prefered Kerry, 41 percent to 30 percent.

Intriguingly, Edwards lost handily among those angry (43-28) or dissatisfied (44-37) with the Bush administration (82 percent of voters), but beat Kerry among the small numbers either satisfied (50-22) or enthusiastic (36-10) about the administration. Edwards also fared well among the 16 percent of voters who said the national economy was good (40-28), but lost among the 79 percent of voters who said it was not good (41-36) or poor (45-29).

Interesting! So the more overtly populist candidate got the happy camper vote and lost those most dissatisfied with the way things are going. And then to deepen the puzzle, Edwards carried economy and jobs voters (46-35), the single largest group of issue voters, at 41 percent, but lost by wide margins on all the other top issues: health care, Iraq, education and taxes. So one would infer that the economy and jobs voters tended to be disproportionately well-off and satisfied with the state of the country. Whodda thunk it?

One last thought: some commentators are opining that Edwards did well because, like Iowa, Wisconsin has this large and significant group of rural and small town Democratic primary voters. But Edwards actually lost to Kerry 44-33 in rural areas and 41-34 in small towns. His real attraction apparently was in suburban areas, which he carried 39 percent to 35 percent and in small cities, which he narrowly lost 37 percent to 35 percent.

Much food for thought. And perhaps for a more interesting and competitive race for the next few weeks than many--including DR--had believed possible.