DR's last two posts have discussed the Newsweek and Quinnipiac University polls and how bad things are going for Bush. Now come newly-released data from the venerable Gallup poll, which paint an even more negative picture of how Bush is doing.

In the Gallup poll, Bush’s approval rating is just 49 percent, with 48 percent disapproval–almost net negative. And rest of his ratings in this poll are net negative. On the economy, he has declined from 54 percent approval in early January to 43 percent approval/54 percent disapproval (-11 points). On health care, he has declined from 43 percent approval to a miserable 35 percent approval/57 percent disapproval (-22). On foreign affairs, over the same time period, he has declined from 58 percent approval to 46 percent approval/51 percent disapproval (-5). And check this out: on the situation in Iraq he has gone from 61 percent approval/36 percent disapproval in early January (+25) to 46 percent approval/53 percent disapproval (-7) today. That’s a swing of 32 points in less than a month.

Bush’s favorability ratings have also taken a dive: from 65 percent favorable in early January to 52 percent favorable/47 percent favorable today. In contrast, John Kerry now has a 61 percent favorable rating to just 23 percent unfavorable. And when matched up as the Democratic nominee against Bush, he wins by 7 points, 53 percent to 46 percent.

Kerry also does very well when matched up against Bush on a variety of characteristics. He beats Bush by 50 percent to 41 percent on “shares your values”, by 56 percent to 33 percent on “is in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face”, by 52 percent to 38 percent on “puts the country’s interests ahead of his own political interests” and even by 46 percent to 43 percent on “has a likeable personality”. Bush also has his areas of strength, of course--+14 on strong and decisive leader, +15 on patriotic and +19 on stands up for what he believes in--but Kerry seems competitive indeed with the president.

Especially when you add in results like these: Americans by 50 percent to 45 percent say they would trust Kerry, rather than Bush, to make the decision to send troops off to war, if necessary. The public also says it has more confidence in Kerry than Bush to make sure good jobs are available to all Ameicans (53 percent to 41 percent); to protect their family's economic interests (53 percent to 41 percent); and even to make sure business conditions and the stock market are as good as possible (46 percent to 45 percent).

Finally, consider this result: when asked "All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq or not?" (note there is no mention of the war's costs), public sentiment is now split right down the middle, 49 percent to 49 percent. Just three weeks ago, that question was at +21 (59 percent to 38 percent) in favor of the war being worth it.

My, my, how times do change. Wasn't the capture of Saddam supposed to make Bush a lock for re-election? No more.

Note: As soon as the exit poll data become available on primary night, DR will post an analysis of the data and overall election results. So look for that in the evening sometime after the polls close.