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January 26, 2004
More on Bush's State of the Union Thud
Yesterday, DR highlighted some results from the new Newsweek poll that indicate Bush's State of the Union (SOTU) address failed to generate the traditional post-speech bounce in presidential support. Today more results of the poll have been released and further illustrate his lack of success in moving public opinion.
The poll asked voters to rate the importance of a series of issues to their 2004 White House vote. Here are the top six issues, with the percent saying "very important" in parentheses: economy and jobs (83 percent); health care (75 percent); education (74 percent); terrorism and homeland security (70 percent); the situation in Iraq (70 percent); and Social Security/Medicare (69 percent).
Then, they asked voters who selected a given issue as "very important" whether they thought a Democratic president would do a better job than Bush on that issue. Here are the same issues with the percentage point lead (or deficit) for a Democratic president among these voters: economy and jobs (+22); health care (+34); education (+22); terrorism and homeland security (-18); situation in Iraq (dead even); and Social Security/Medicare (+32).
Pretty interesting! Despite how much Bush dwelt on terrorism and Iraq in his SOTU address, his lead on the former, his area of greatest strength, is actually less than the Democratic leads on the four domestic issues. And he has no lead whatsoever on Iraq, the front line, according to him, of the war against terror.
It's also worth noting that a Democratic president leads Bush on every other issue tested in this poll: the environment (+46); the federal budget deficit (+40); US relations with major European allies (+20); appointing new Supreme Court and federal judges (+12); foreign policy (+10); and even taxes (+8).
Turning to various proposals and decisions Bush referred to in his speech, it is striking that none of them elicit an approval rating above the mid-50's, except for "giving government funding to churches and other religious groups that provide social services" (65 percent). And DR was fascinated to note that "a constitutional amendment, if necessary, to ban gay marriage in all states" got only a 46 percent approval rating, with equally high disapproval.
Finally, how about this one: "Do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans safer from terrorism?". Yes: 44 percent. No: 53 percent. Since this is exactly the case Bush was trying to make in the SOTU, disagreement here is a particularly telling indicator that his speech should be considered "mission not accomplished".
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 09:19 PM | link
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