Expanding on yesterday's post about how the political center of the country is leaning against Bush and toward the Democrats, here are some very interesting data from the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

Among political independents, Bush's approval ratings are almost all net negative: overall (45 percent approval/50 percent disapproval); foreign policy (40 percent/50 percent); Iraq (44 percent/49 percent); and the economy (37 percent/58 percent).

Bush's favorability rating is also net negative among independents: 33 percent favorable/39 percent unfavorable. And by 9 points, (46 percent to 37 percent), independents say they will probably support the Democratic candidate rather than Bush in the November election. Note that Bush actually carried independents by 2 points in 2000, an election in which he lost the popular vote, so a deficit of this magnitude--of even half that size--would probably sink him in '04.

And check out these party favorability ratings among independents: net negative on the GOP (43 percent favorable/46 percent unfavorable) and strongly net positive on the Democrats (52 percent/36 percent).

More anti-Bush sentiment: by 14 points (56 percent to 42 percent), independents do not have confidence in Bush's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis; by 33 points (64 percent to 31 percent), independents lack confidence in Bush's ability to make the right decisions on the nation's economy; by 24 points (58 percent to 34 percent), they don't think Bush has the same priorities for the country as they do; and by 39 points (62 percent to 23 percent), they think Bush is more interested in protecting the interests of large corporations than the interests of ordinary Americans.

On the economic front, just 13 percent of independents think their family is better off financially now than they were when Bush took office; and the exact same low number of independents believe Bush administration policies have increased the number of jobs in the country.

In terms of the war, independents, by a wide 57 percent to 38 percent margin don't think the result of the war was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq. And, by 55 percent to 40 percent, they think the Bush administration was too quick to involve the US in a war in Iraq.

But perhaps these voters will be impressed with the role of religion in Bush's life, despite their disagreements with his policies? Nope. By 53 percent to 43 percent, they say they don't even want to hear about the role of religion in candidates' lives during the presidential campaign.

In closing this post, let me offer three propositions:

1. Independents will decide the outcome of the 2004 election.

2. Independents, because they're leaning toward the Democrats in so many different ways, will give the Democratic candidate a long and respectful listen in this election.

3. Therefore, the best candidate for the Democrats in 2004 will be the one who can communicate most effectively with independents and turn their leanings into actual votes.