The latest Gallup poll measured Bush's approval rating at 60 percent. How should we interpret this?

USA Today said on its website: "Bush Approval Rating Grows". Not reallly. In fact, compared to Gallup's last poll, his approval rating has actually declined by 3 points, giving back almost half of the bounce he received from Saddam's capture (a trend which DR predicted would quickly emerge unless the situation on the ground in Iraq improved dramatically--which, of course, it hasn't).

Well, but how about the fact, as Gallup points out, Bush's approval rating at this point is higher than recent presidents seeking re-election like Bush I and even Bill Clinton?

The problem here (even accepting the level indicated by Gallup, which has been running high relative to other public polls) is trend. Bush's 60 percent rating is being captured post-bounce, in the midst of a downward trend where most of that bounce could easily disappear. This, in fact, has been the pattern throughout the entire Bush administration--LiberalOasis calls it the "Bush Cycle"--where an approval spike generated by a Big Event (9/11, the invasion of Iraq, the capture of Saddam) is followed by a long period of decline where he loses support at the rate of 2-3 points a month.

If this pattern repeats itself, Bush's post-Saddam capture increase in his approval rating will vanish in another month or two and he'll be back at 50 percent and headed down in another couple of months (sooner in other polls because, again, Gallup's approval ratings have been running high).

If that happens, then Bush doesn't look so good. The last two presidents to get re-elected (Reagan and Clinton) had approval ratings that went up in the first half of the election year. The last two presidents to get defeated for re-election (Carter and Bush I) had approval ratings that went down over the same period. Which of these categories Bush II belongs to is likely to be more predictive of his fate than the current level of his approval rating.