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January 7, 2004

Clark on the Move

No question about it, Wes Clark's campaign is starting to get some traction. First, he's moved past John Kerry into second place in the latest ARG New Hampshire tracking poll. Since December 26-28, Kerry has lost 6 points and Clark has gained 4, resulting in the switch in their relative positions.

And then the latest Gallup national poll has Clark closing the gap with Dean dramatically among Democrats and Democratic leaners. Right now, Dean is ahead of Clark by just 24 percent to 20 percent (and this is the first time Clark has been in the 20's since October 6-8). As recently as December 11-14, Dean was ahead of Clark by 21 points, 31 percent to 10 percent--so Clark has doubled his support in the last three weeks, while Dean has lost a quarter of his. And this last poll was taken before Clark's attractive tax plan was released and therefore does not reflect any boost he may be receiving from that announcement.

Not too shabby. A second place finish in New Hampshire and some victories on February 3 and he's off to the races.

In light of his progress, this seems a good time to review DR's November 1 recommendations on "How Clark Could Win the Nomination". How's he doing?

1. Work the Electability Angle. Check and double check, with the release of his tax plan.

2. Break Through in the South. That does indeed seem to be his plan and he appears to be in a good position to do so.

3. Go for the Noncollege Crowd. We lack good data here, but DR's sense is that Clark's support, especially relative to Dean, is drawn disproportionately from this group.

4. Go for independents and Republicans. We really lack good data here, but Clark is, in DR's view, positioning himself well to receive support from this not-insignificant bloc of Democratic primrary voters.

5. Work the Arithmetic. In terms of superdelegates, he isn't doing terribly well at this point. But, if Matthew Yglesias is right and superdelegates tend to follow the political winds, perhaps the time is now right for Clark to start lining up additional support from these quarters.

So far then, Clark seems to more-or-less be on DR's wavelength in terms of how he's conducting his campaign. Good luck to him. Wish, though, he had another signature issue besides his tax plan on the domestic front that could help wash away that "laundry list" feel one often gets from his domestic pronouncements.

Is that going to happen? Well: let's ask him!

(from an online chat earlier today on Clark04.com that DR participated in)

- Ruy Teixeira of "Donkey Rising" asks The tax plan you just released can fairly be characterized as a signature issue for your campaign. Is there another dometic issue you might give the same kind of treatment to? If so, what is it? Education (a personal favorite of mine)? Health care? Retirement?

- Ruy, I have so many issues that I feel strongly about....we're in a health care crisis, and I want to see us move our system into the promotion of wellness and good health, not just treating illnesses....we neeed comprehensive diagnoastic and preventive care. Then there's education, and I am an especially strong believer in preswchool education for all children, and we're going to make that happen...and then there's the problem of jobs, and this may be the biggest challenge of all...we simply have to create jobs in this country...and thus far we' are failing to create enough jobs....Alll that's important to me. Wes

DR'll take that as a "not really" or perhaps an "I know what you mean, but we haven't figured that one out yet". Sounds like the Clark campaign's got a bit of work to do in that department.

But, overall it's been a pretty darn good three weeks for Clark. And it'll be very interesting to see what happens next.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 06:49 PM | link

 



EDM Newsletter


The Incredible Shrinking National Security Gap (Apr 13) By Ruy Teixeira


Oh, Those Liberal College Students! (Apr 12) By Ruy Teixeira


What Does the Public Want on Immigration? (Apr 5) By Ruy Teixeira


Exurbia: The Democrats' Next Frontier (Mar 31) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Election Outlook: The Macro and the Micro (Mar 30) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Campaign Watch (Mar 24) By Ruy Teixeira


The Iraq War, Three Years On (Mar 22) By Ruy Teixeira


Will the Real Swingers Please Stand Up? (Mar 22) By Alan Abramowitz


Did the Bin Laden Tape Tip the Election to Bush? (Mar 21) By David Gopoian


The UN: Good Idea, Bad Execution (Mar 16) By Ruy Teixeira


Strong Disapproval Matters (Mar 10) By Alan Abramowitz


The Great Bail-Out (Mar 8) By Ruy Teixeira


Unmarried America: Demographics and Attitudes (Mar 1) By Ruy Teixeira


Weekly analysis of latest public opinion polls by Ruy Teixeira.


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Articles by Ruy Texieira


"The Battle for the Exurbs" by Ruy Teixeira (New York Times)


"Movement Interruptus" by Ruy Teixeira and John B. Judis (American Prospect)


"Old Democrats and the Shock of the New" by Ruy Teixeira (Varieties of Progressivism in America)


"Would Reagan Recognize the GOP?" by John B. Judis (TNR)


"Reality Check" by Ruy Teixeira (contribution to Boston Review forum on "How the Democrats Can Win")


"White Flight: Bush Loses His Base" by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira (TNR)


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"Newer Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (The Gadflyer)


"Emerging Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (Prospect, UK)


"How Kerry Could Beat Bush" by Ruy Teixeira (Salon.com)


Review of Zell Miller's A National Party No More and Stanley Greenberg's The Two Americas by Ruy Teixeira (January-February Washington Monthly)


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