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January 4, 2004
Is the Bush Bounce Already Over?
Hard to say until we see a few more polls, but it is interesting to note that the just-released Time/CNN poll, which was conducted December 30-January 1, has his approval rating at just 54 percent, only a couple of points over their mid-November poll. This poll be one of the first to reflect the public's realization that the capture of Saddam Hussein did not, in fact, end the war in Iraq, nor even appreciably reduce the amount of violence directed at US troops.
DR was also intrigued by the results of their re-elect question, which were closer than results on similar questions in earlier post-Saddam capture polls: 51 percent said they were very or somewhat likely to vote for Bush's re-election, compared to 46 percent who said they were very or somewhat unlikely to vote for him, with very unlikely (38 percent) being 5 points higher than very likely (33 percent). And, significantly, among independents, where Bush had been picking up some ground since the capture, those saying they are unlikely to vote for Bush's re-election (52 percent) now outnumber those who say they are likely to vote for him (46 percent). The former figure includes an astonishing 42 percent of independents who say they are very unlikely to support Bush's re-election, far higher than the 26 percent of independents who say their support is very likely.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 11:59 PM | link
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