He’s certainly got a shot at it–arguably the best shot of any of the other Democratic candidates. That’s the view of The Daily Kos, Josh Marshall and a number of others. DR tends to agree.

Clark’s basic strategy also seems fairly consistent with a number of points DR made awhile ago in a post on “How Clark Can Win the Nomination”. He’s stressing electability, he’s planning to break through in the south, he’s going after the noncollege crowd and after moderates and independents. Specific scenarios for Clark’s success vary, but generally include him coming in second or third in New Hampshire (with Dean hopefully not taking Iowa), taking several states on February 2nd (South Carolina, Arizona, maybe one or two others) and then, with Dean’s aura of invincibility shattered, gaining momentum, consolidating the anti-Dean vote and finally winning the resulting two-person race.

What DR finds missing here is any sense that Clark actually has to run on anything more than his biography and his electability. Even on foreign policy/Iraq, his real product differentiation with Dean is his biography: Dean’s not credible on this stuff, I am because I’m General Clark and I won the war in Kosovo, etc. And on domestic issues, the kindest thing you can say is that he has a copycat program designed to pass Democratic muster. It’s not terrible; it’s just not particularly good. Nor has Clark taken a specific domestic issue (or two) and tried to make it a signature issue; something emblematic of his distinctive approach to solving America’s problems. DR has recommended education (for more discussion, see this excellent post in Mark Schmitt’s Decembrist), but the most important thing is that he have an issue he can make his own and talk passionately about–rather than saying: “me, too”.

Even on taxes, where he has an important difference from Dean (wanting to repeal just the tax cuts for the rich, rather than all the tax cuts, including those for the middle class), Clark has not made much of an effort to capitalize on this difference. Again, it’s vote for me because I’m Wes Clark, rather than vote for me because I’ve got the best ideas and the best approach.

DR doesn’t think this is going to work. Voters want more than just an electable biography, so to speak. They want a sense of where you’re going to take the country which, in turn, has to be crystallized in a few issues that show you’re really different from, and really better than, the other guy. Once you’ve convinced them of that, a perception of electability can be a great aid in generating political momentum.

But it’s not a substitute for what you stand for. First things first.