Emerging Democratic Majority about this site | contact | search | home 
Emerging Democratic Majority
get the EDM newsletters  Navigation - Sign Up
EDM Newsletter Donkey Rising

« So, Do You Feel Safer Yet? | Main | Seniors to Medicare Bill: Drop Dead! »


December 9, 2003

Can Dean Move to the Center?

Gore’s endorsement of Dean clearly adds to Dean’s already considerable momentum toward the nomination. At the same time, as Josh Marshall points out, it probably will accelerate the emergence of the anti-Dean candidate, whoever that may be. Trouble is, of course, that being the anti-Dean, with this announcement and Dean’s latest poll results, seems increasingly likely to mean a ticket to a glorious second place finish in the race.

But that means it’s more vital than ever to think through the question of whether and how Dean will be able to move to the center in the general election. And make no mistake about it: he will need to do so. In the Gallup poll linked to above, Dean does way better among liberal Democrats than any of the other candidates, receiving 40 percent of their support, compared to just 11 percent for Clark and 9 percent for Gephardt.

But when you look at moderate and conservative Democrats, it’s a different story. Dean receives only 17 percent of moderates’ support, running slightly behind Clark at 19 percent. And with conservatives, he does rather poorly, receiving 11 percent of their support, running behind Gephardt (25 percent), Clark (17 percent) and Lieberman (13 percent).

It’s a fair assumption that the pattern we find here among Democrats will replicate itself in the general election: liberals will take to Dean easily, while moderates and conservatives will take much more convincing to throw their support to the man from Vermont.

Findings from a recently-released Pew Research Center poll of likely Democratic primary/caucus participants underscore this problem. Just 5 percent of these Democratic voters choose Dean as a Democratic candidate who would do a “particularly good job” protecting the nation from terrorism (and respondents could select more than one candidate if they wished). Now, if Democrats have a hard time associating this issue with Dean, it’s a reasonable assumption general election voters will have an equally or more difficult time.

The Pew poll also finds that just 36 percent of these likely Democratic primary voters favor repealing all of the Bush tax cuts, as Dean does. This is actually less than the number (42 percent) who would prefer to repeal the tax cuts for the wealthy, while keeping the rest of the cuts in place. And this is among Democrats. It’s a very fair assumption that Dean’s position will be an even harder sell among the general election electorate–particularly the moderates and conservatives mentioned above.

So: time to move to the center. Here’s a two point plan that could help him get there.

1. A “Sister Souljah” moment on the loony anti-war left. Dean, as Robert Kagan and others have pointed out is no George McGovern on foreign policy and fighting terror. Time to let the voters know that. There is certainly no dearth of nutty groups or far-out intellectuals who could be usefully denounced as failing to understand the need for America to fight terror with every means at its disposal. Iraq may have been an ill-conceived use of American power, but that does not mean the exertion of American power is always a bad idea. And so on.

2. Preserve the middle class tax cuts. As Paul Krugman and others have pointed out, eliminating all the Bush tax cuts is not economically necessary. And the polling data couldn’t be clearer about what a bad idea it is politically. Time to tell the American people the really serious problem with the Bush tax cuts is the huge tax breaks going to the folks who don’t need it. We’ll take those back, then move toward real tax reform that shifts the tax burden away from work and closes tax loopholes for the wealthy. And so on.

Together, these two moves would do much to reassure non-liberal voters who are uncomfortable with George Bush that it’s safe to vote Democratic. And that, in DR’s view, will be the key to the election.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 11:41 PM | link

 



EDM Newsletter


The Incredible Shrinking National Security Gap (Apr 13) By Ruy Teixeira


Oh, Those Liberal College Students! (Apr 12) By Ruy Teixeira


What Does the Public Want on Immigration? (Apr 5) By Ruy Teixeira


Exurbia: The Democrats' Next Frontier (Mar 31) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Election Outlook: The Macro and the Micro (Mar 30) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Campaign Watch (Mar 24) By Ruy Teixeira


The Iraq War, Three Years On (Mar 22) By Ruy Teixeira


Will the Real Swingers Please Stand Up? (Mar 22) By Alan Abramowitz


Did the Bin Laden Tape Tip the Election to Bush? (Mar 21) By David Gopoian


The UN: Good Idea, Bad Execution (Mar 16) By Ruy Teixeira


Strong Disapproval Matters (Mar 10) By Alan Abramowitz


The Great Bail-Out (Mar 8) By Ruy Teixeira


Unmarried America: Demographics and Attitudes (Mar 1) By Ruy Teixeira


Weekly analysis of latest public opinion polls by Ruy Teixeira.


» Public Opinion Watch

EDM - The Book


An overview of the influential book.


EDM - The Book

»Read the commentary
» Read articles by John Judis and
Ruy Teixeira

» Buy the book

 
Articles by Ruy Texieira


"The Battle for the Exurbs" by Ruy Teixeira (New York Times)


"Movement Interruptus" by Ruy Teixeira and John B. Judis (American Prospect)


"Old Democrats and the Shock of the New" by Ruy Teixeira (Varieties of Progressivism in America)


"Would Reagan Recognize the GOP?" by John B. Judis (TNR)


"Reality Check" by Ruy Teixeira (contribution to Boston Review forum on "How the Democrats Can Win")


"White Flight: Bush Loses His Base" by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira (TNR)


"Don't Mourn, Mobilize" by Ruy Teixeira (American Prospect)


"Newer Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (The Gadflyer)


"Emerging Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (Prospect, UK)


"How Kerry Could Beat Bush" by Ruy Teixeira (Salon.com)


Review of Zell Miller's A National Party No More and Stanley Greenberg's The Two Americas by Ruy Teixeira (January-February Washington Monthly)


"The Nonsouthern Strategy" by Cliff Schecter and Ruy Teixeira (February American Prospect)


The Emerging Democratic Majority is now available in paperback. You can buy it here. Read an excerpt from the new afterword here.

Recent Entries

Dems' Game Plan Taking Shape (Jul 3)

GOP '06 Strategy Hinges on Iraq, Terrorism(Jul 2)

LA Times Poll: Dems Pulling Ahead in Congressional Races(Jun 30)

SCOTUS Redistricting Decision and Dems' Future(Jun 29)

GQR Survey Reveals Swing Voter Priorities(Jun 28)

Dems Take Lead in Midwest Bellwether(Jun 27)

Stampede of the Rinos or Ain't Nuthin' the Matter With Kansas(Jun 26)

Can Dems Match GOP Ground Game?(Jun 25)

Confronting the "Cut and Run" Label(Jun 22)

'Mapchanger Attitude' Needed for a Blue America(Jun 21)


Search The Archive
Keyword: 

 
Archives

July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003


Internet Resources


Blogs

Eric Alterman
Angry Bear
Bull Moose (Marshall Wittmann)
Centerfield
Campaign Confidential (E.J. Kessler)
Juan Cole
Columbia Journalism Review
  Campaign Desk

Joe Conason
Daily Kos
The Decembrist (Mark Schmitt)
Brad DeLong
Democracy Arsenal (Security and
  Peace Institute)

Eschaton
Facing South (Institute for
  Southern Studies)

Gadflyer Fly Trap
GoozNews (Merrill Goozner)
The Left Coaster
LiberalOasis
MyDD (Jerome Armstrong)
Mystery Pollster
NewDonkey (Ed Kilgore)
New Democrat Network
Political Animal (Kevin Drum)
Political State Report
Political Strategy
Political Wire (Taegan Goddard)
Politics1
PolySigh
Radical Middle
The Plank (New Republic)
Swing State Project
Talking Points Memo
TPM Cafe
TAPPED (American Prospect)
Think Progress (Center for American Progress)
Third Estate (Publius)
War and Piece (Laura Rozen)
Washington Note (Steve Clemons)
The Yellin Report
Matthew Yglesias

Online Magazines and Digests

BuzzFlash Report
CommonDreams 
Gadflyer
Moving Ideas
Salon
Slate 
Tom Paine

Print Magazine Web Sites

American Prospect
Atlantic Monthly
Blueprint
Boston Review
Dissent
Foreign Policy
London Review of Books
Nation
National Interest
New Left Review
New Republic
New York Review of Books
New Yorker
Policy Review
Prospect (UK)
Public Interest
Washington Monthly
Weekly Standard

Think Tanks

American Enterprise Institute
Brookings Institution
Center for American Progress
Center for Budget and Policy
  Priorities

Center for Economic and Policy
  Research

The Century Foundation
Citizens for Tax Justice
Economic Policy Institute
Financial Markets Center
New America Foundation
Urban Institute

Organizations

America Coming Together
Campaign for America's Future
Democratic Leadership Council
Democratic National Committee
Democrats.com
MoveOn.org
New Democrat Network
Progressive Democrats of America
Third Way


Internet Resources


Recent Polls

ABC News
AEI public opinion studies
American Research Group
Annenberg Election Survey
CBS News
Democracy Corps
Economist/YouGov
Fox News
Gallup
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
GW Battleground
Harris
Hotline/Westhill Partners
IBD/CSM/TIPP
ICR
Ipsos/Associated Press
Kaiser Family Foundation
Los Angeles Times
Marist College
National Election Studies
Newsweek
Pew Research Center
Phi Delta Kappa education polls
Polling Report
Pollkatz's Pool of Polls
Public Agenda
Program on International Policy
  Attitudes

Quinnipiac University
Rasmussen Reports
RealClear Politics polling data
  roundups

Roper Center presidential approval
  series

Survey USA
Time/SRBI
USA Today
Wall Street Journal/NBC News
Washington Post/ABC News
Zogby

2004 Election Data

CNN election results
CNN NEP exit poll results
Dave Leip's election atlas
Democracy Corps postelection
  survey

Los Angeles Times exit poll
MSNBC NEP exit poll results
New York Times exit poll data
  spreadsheet

New York Times portrait of the
  2004 electorate

WCVI Hispanic exit poll

2002 Election Data

CNN election results
Democracy Corps postelection
  survey

Los Angeles Times California exit poll

2000 Election Data

CNN election results
Dave Leip's election atlas
Democracy Corps postelection
  survey

Los Angeles Times exit poll
New York Times portrait of the 2000
  electorate

VNS exit poll

 

 

 

 

 


 Dialogue Among Dems | The Strategy Center | EDM - The Book | About This Site
 
Contents Copyright © 2003-2004 by Ruy Teixeira
 
Powered by Movable Type 3.11

XML RSS