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November 26, 2003
Fun With (Electoral) Math!
DR commented awhile ago on the merits of a nonsouthern strategy in 2004. A key point was that, while such a strategy should not be dogmatically pursued, it makes general sense as a way for Democrats to approach the electoral map in 2004.
But why take DR’s word for it? Now you too can see the virtues of a nonsouthern strategy by making your very own run at an electoral targeting strategy.
It’s simple. Take a list of the states with their EVs. Now assign the states you think are appropriate to “safe Bush” and “safe Dem” categories. The ones left over are the ones you think are in play.
Break down the states in play by region and decide where Democrats should concentrate their efforts to have the best chance of getting to 270 and beyond. And there you have it: your strategy and very likely a variant on a nonsouthern strategy.
People might reasonably say, “but, DR, making up categories and lists like that is a big hassle; who wants to do that?” No problem! The good folks at John Edwards’ presidential campaign provide an interactive electoral map that makes your calculations easy and allows you to map out your strategy state-by-state. Or, if you prefer a list format, Dave Leip’s wonderful election atlas provides a page where you can allocate states to Republicans, Democrats and toss-up and calculate and re-calculate electoral vote totals as you do so.
Need data to help you think through which states go where? You can find past presidential election results down to the county level at Leip’s election atlas. And you can find much useful current data on potential swing states at DavidNYC’s swing state project blog.
OK, that should keep people busy until we reconvene after Thanksgiving. See you then.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 06:05 PM | link
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