With the favorable decision of the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts on same-sex marriages, there was much wringing of hands among Democrats that the gay marriage issue could help sink the Democrats in 2004. The Republicans will use the issue, fueled by reaction to the court decision, to drive cultural conservatives to their side and take swing states away from the Democrats.

Only one slight problem. One very logical reaction to this state court decision (if you feel strongly that gay marriage is an abomination and the courts can’t be trusted) is to take it out of the hands of the courts and go for a constitutional amendment. That means the numerous conservative activists who were already calling for a “Federal Marriage Amendment” (FMA) are going to be screaming louder in the wake of this decision.

And what’s the support level for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage? A minuscule 10 percent, according to a just-released Pew Research Center Study. That makes stated support for gay marriage–32 percent, in the same poll–look robust. So if the GOP starts pumping up the issue, they’re going to energize a part of their base that holds a profoundly unpopular position–a position that will alienate many of the moderate suburban voters they need to carry swing states.

And Bush already has a problem with his image on these kind of issues. According to a recent Gallup poll, half the country thinks he wants to ban abortion completely–also a profoundly unpopular position. And what’s he going to do about Dick Cheney, who has an openly lesbian daughter and who is on record as supporting states’ rights to set policy in this area? Or about the fact that political independents, whose votes he desperately needs, tend to be pretty liberal on gay issues (they favor allowing civil unions by 52 percent to 41 percent) and will likely see unleashing the furies on the gay marriage issue as a move toward intolerance?

DR could go on. But he won’t. Instead, check out the excellent article by Matthew Yglesias on The American Prospect website which has much additional useful analysis along these lines. The Democrats will have many challenges to deal with in 2004. The Massachusetts Court decision is not likely to be one of them.

Tomorrow: Moderates Not Moderate on Bush