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November 18, 2003

Public Souring on Bush

The latest Gallup poll documents the increasingly sour mood of the public about President Bush and, critically, many of his personal characteristics.

Start with his overall approval rating: down to 50 percent with 47 percent disapproval–tied with a mid-September poll for the worst of his presidency. Then consider items like whether Bush “is in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives”. Only 42 percent say this applies to Bush; 57 percent say it does not.

Or how about whether Bush “generally agrees with you on issues you care about”–right now, just 48 percent say this characteristic applies to Bush, down from 64 percent the last time Gallup asked this, in May of 2002. And the same number, 48 percent, say Bush “can get the economy moving”, with 50 percent saying he cannot.

Well, does Bush share their values? An underwhelming 53 percent believe he does, down from 66 percent at the time of last November’s election. And does Bush “care about the needs of people like you”? Uh-uh, says the public, by 50 percent to 49 percent. That’s a 16 point swing from the end of June, when the public believed, by 57 percent to 42 percent, that he did care about the needs of people like them.

How about whether he “is a person you admire”? Right now, it’s a 50 percent to 49 percent split in favor of “admire”–but that’s down from a 54 percent to 45 percent split in June of this year and a 64 percent to 33 percent split in May of last year. And here’s the kicker: the number who believe he is “honest and trustworthy” is down 14 points–from 73 percent to 59 percent–just since early April. If that number keeps heading downward, that’s particularly bad news for Bush, who has relied heavily on a bond of personal trust with the public to buoy his presidency.

Even Bush’s traditionally strong suit of being a “strong and decisive leader” has been taking a big hit. In early April, 80 percent said that characteristic applied to Bush; now that’s down to 66 percent, a 14 point drop.

Of course, people still seem to like the guy at some level: 68 percent say they approve of Bush “as a person”, a number appears to have changed little during the course of the Bush presidency. At the margin that perception might help Bush a bit in ‘04. But if this is what the Republican spin-meisters are reduced to using as an indicator of Bush’s popular support, Democrats shouldn’t be intimidated. Far from it.

Now all we need is the right candidate to beat Mr. Nice-Guy-But-Not-Much-Else-Going-For-Him. Back to that issue soon.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 05:45 PM | link

 



EDM Newsletter


The Incredible Shrinking National Security Gap (Apr 13) By Ruy Teixeira


Oh, Those Liberal College Students! (Apr 12) By Ruy Teixeira


What Does the Public Want on Immigration? (Apr 5) By Ruy Teixeira


Exurbia: The Democrats' Next Frontier (Mar 31) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Election Outlook: The Macro and the Micro (Mar 30) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Campaign Watch (Mar 24) By Ruy Teixeira


The Iraq War, Three Years On (Mar 22) By Ruy Teixeira


Will the Real Swingers Please Stand Up? (Mar 22) By Alan Abramowitz


Did the Bin Laden Tape Tip the Election to Bush? (Mar 21) By David Gopoian


The UN: Good Idea, Bad Execution (Mar 16) By Ruy Teixeira


Strong Disapproval Matters (Mar 10) By Alan Abramowitz


The Great Bail-Out (Mar 8) By Ruy Teixeira


Unmarried America: Demographics and Attitudes (Mar 1) By Ruy Teixeira


Weekly analysis of latest public opinion polls by Ruy Teixeira.


» Public Opinion Watch

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Articles by Ruy Texieira


"The Battle for the Exurbs" by Ruy Teixeira (New York Times)


"Movement Interruptus" by Ruy Teixeira and John B. Judis (American Prospect)


"Old Democrats and the Shock of the New" by Ruy Teixeira (Varieties of Progressivism in America)


"Would Reagan Recognize the GOP?" by John B. Judis (TNR)


"Reality Check" by Ruy Teixeira (contribution to Boston Review forum on "How the Democrats Can Win")


"White Flight: Bush Loses His Base" by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira (TNR)


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"Newer Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (The Gadflyer)


"Emerging Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (Prospect, UK)


"How Kerry Could Beat Bush" by Ruy Teixeira (Salon.com)


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