The plot thickens. Dean continues to raise money hand over fist and develop long lists of supporters he can count on not only to vote for him, but organize others to do the same. And today he should get the formal endorsement of the largest and second-largest unions in the country, SEIU and AFSCME, who, of course, are huge players in Democratic primary/caucus politics all over the country.

The Confederate flag flap seemed to function merely as a speed bump. He’s leading in most national polls, way ahead in New Hampshire, second in Iowa and performing strongly in state polls all over the country.

Geez. How’d this happen? DR strongly recommends Noam Scheiber’s new article in The New Republic, “Joe Trippi Reinvents Campaigning”. It is probably the best account so far on how Dean’s campaign machine got built–and how it works as well as it does. Scheiber’s essential point–and it’s a good one–is that Joe Trippi figured out a clever way to use a technological tool (the internet) to radically decrease the “cost per body” for a candidate seeking the nomination. That is, in the past, candidates have had to knock on doors, make phone calls or send mail (and do it over and over again) to round up the reliable supporters they need to win caucuses and primaries. And all of that costs money--frequently over a long period of time.

With Trippi’s methods, it is possible to generate supporters at quite a low cost–indeed, to come out ahead of the game, because one of the ways you organize these supporters is by getting them to contribute money. And it can all be done fairly quickly, given the nature of the internet as a communications medium.

So it’s not just that Dean has a good message that strongly appeals to many in the Democratic party, as well as some new to politics in general. It’s that he is working with a model of campaigning that’s basically better and more efficient than his competitors.

But that’s to get the nomination, of course. As Scheiber points out, the model is not obviously transferable to a general election where, instead of getting a million or two hardcore supporters in your corner, you need 50 million plus people to vote for you. And the crucial part of that electoral coalition you need to forge are independent voters who lean moderate, not liberal, like Dean’s supporters.

And make no mistake: it’s all about the independents. As DR discussed recently, independent voters are converging with Democrats in their political views and priorities for the country. That’s a great opportunity. And a recent Newsweek poll showed Republicans’ and Democrats’ support and opposition to Bush’s re-election cancelling each other out, but independents opposing Bush’s re-election by 53 percent to 40 percent.

Replicate that pattern in 2004 and the Democrats will win the election. But to do that, the Democratic candidate will have to make millions of independents who don’t like Bush’s policies feel it’s safe to vote for the Democrat.

Can Dean do this? Maybe. But that’s what Joe Trippi should be staying up nights thinking about, because his new model of nomination campaigning is not (yet) a new model of general election campaigning.

DR wishes him luck figuring this out. Or, alternatively, DR hopes Wes Clark gets a good campaign manager.