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November 3, 2003

Public to Bush: You're Out of Touch!

The new Washington Post poll has another boatload of bad news for the Bushies. A matchup of Bush with a generic Democrat gives him only a one point lead (48 percent to 47 percent). And in head-to-head matchups with specific Democrats, his lead has shrunk substantially since mid-September, particularly over John Kerry, where his lead has gone from 15 to just 6 points.

On the approval ratings front, his overall approval rating has gone slightly up, rather than slightly down, as in the recent Gallup and Quinnipiac University polls. However, consistent with other public polls, his approval rating on Iraq has slipped to net negative (47 percent approval/51 percent disapproval) from net positive in mid-September.

But from the standpoint of the Bush administration, the most disturbing approval findings may be these. His approval rating on taxes has slipped to a net rating of -12 points (41 percent approval/53 percent disapproval) from a 48 percent/48 percent split in mid-September. When you’ve got a net negative rating on your signature domestic issue, that’s very bad news indeed.

And when you look at two other key domestic areas, both of which seem likely to figure in the 2004 campaign, his ratings are beyond the merely bad: 32 percent approval/61 percent disapproval on the federal budget deficit and 28 percent approval/63 percent disapproval on the cost, availability and coverage of health insurance.

Turning to the war, the news here, as in other recent polls, is not good–in fact, terrible–for the Bush administration. At this point, 62 percent say the number of US military casualties in Iraq is unacceptable. That’s up from 28 percent on April 9. And the number opposing the additional $87 billion for Iraq is up to 64 percent, with only 34 percent in favor.

On the economy, the findings are equally daunting for the Rove team. For example, when asked whether most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, just 9 percent (!) say Americans are better off, compared to 49 percent who say they are not as well off and 41 percent who say they are about the same. The comparable figures for Poppa Bush in October of 1991: 7 percent better off, 48 percent not as well off, 41 percent the same. Eerily similar, no?

And when asked how they themselves are doing financially during the Bush presidency, 22 percent say they are better off, 27 percent say not as well off and 50 percent say about the same. Again the analogous figures for Bush pere are almost identical: 20 percent better off, 27 percent not as well off and 53 percent the same.

Finally, DR’s favorite finding from the entire poll: Only 40 percent now say that Bush “understands the problems of people like you”, compared to 58 percent who think he does not. Sounds like folks think he’s out of touch. Say, didn’t they think that about some other president not so long ago?

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 03:33 PM | link

 



EDM Newsletter


The Incredible Shrinking National Security Gap (Apr 13) By Ruy Teixeira


Oh, Those Liberal College Students! (Apr 12) By Ruy Teixeira


What Does the Public Want on Immigration? (Apr 5) By Ruy Teixeira


Exurbia: The Democrats' Next Frontier (Mar 31) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Election Outlook: The Macro and the Micro (Mar 30) By Ruy Teixeira


2006 Campaign Watch (Mar 24) By Ruy Teixeira


The Iraq War, Three Years On (Mar 22) By Ruy Teixeira


Will the Real Swingers Please Stand Up? (Mar 22) By Alan Abramowitz


Did the Bin Laden Tape Tip the Election to Bush? (Mar 21) By David Gopoian


The UN: Good Idea, Bad Execution (Mar 16) By Ruy Teixeira


Strong Disapproval Matters (Mar 10) By Alan Abramowitz


The Great Bail-Out (Mar 8) By Ruy Teixeira


Unmarried America: Demographics and Attitudes (Mar 1) By Ruy Teixeira


Weekly analysis of latest public opinion polls by Ruy Teixeira.


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Articles by Ruy Texieira


"The Battle for the Exurbs" by Ruy Teixeira (New York Times)


"Movement Interruptus" by Ruy Teixeira and John B. Judis (American Prospect)


"Old Democrats and the Shock of the New" by Ruy Teixeira (Varieties of Progressivism in America)


"Would Reagan Recognize the GOP?" by John B. Judis (TNR)


"Reality Check" by Ruy Teixeira (contribution to Boston Review forum on "How the Democrats Can Win")


"White Flight: Bush Loses His Base" by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira (TNR)


"Don't Mourn, Mobilize" by Ruy Teixeira (American Prospect)


"Newer Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (The Gadflyer)


"Emerging Democrats" by Ruy Teixeira (Prospect, UK)


"How Kerry Could Beat Bush" by Ruy Teixeira (Salon.com)


Review of Zell Miller's A National Party No More and Stanley Greenberg's The Two Americas by Ruy Teixeira (January-February Washington Monthly)


"The Nonsouthern Strategy" by Cliff Schecter and Ruy Teixeira (February American Prospect)


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