Sure he is. DR’s still not sure he can get nominated (Dean’s clearly in the driver’s seat there), but evidence continues to mount that Clark could definitely beat Bush and is probably the Democrats’ best bet to do so.

Start with male voters. A little-noticed feature of Bush’s recent drop in approval ratings, reported by William Schneider in the October 4 National Journal, was the extent to which the drop was driven by a sharp decline in approval among men–17 points from August through late September, virtually erasing the gender gap in presidential approval. Now, it’s unlikely that the Democrats can translate all that male Bush disapproval into votes–a gender gap of some size is likely to remain–but a candidate who can consolidate a good chunk of these male voters will considerably boost his chances in the general election.

That candidate would appear to be Wesley Clark. We’ve already seen that Clark does very well among Democratic registered voters who are men. But he also does well among male registered voters in general. In a just-released Quinnipiac University poll of Pennsylvania voters, Clark is the only candidate who holds Bush under 50 percent (48 percent Bush to 43 percent Clark) in a prospective 2004 matchup. He does this by getting as much support as Dean among women (44 percent), but also receiving 42 percent support from men, in contrast to Dean’s 37 percent. As a result Dean runs much less well than Clark, losing to Bush 51 percent to 41 percent.

Or take independent voters. For a Democrat to win in 2004, he must run strongly among these voters. In a just-released Field Poll of California registered voters, Clark is the only candidate to beat Bush in a head-to-head matchup, 45 percent to 43 percent. He does this by doing about as well as the other candidates among Democrats, but also carrying independents by 18 points, 51 percent to 33 percent. In contrast, Dean carries independents by just 3 points and as a result loses to Bush, 46 percent to 42 percent. The other Democratic candidates do somewhat better, carrying independents by from 4 to 8 points, but also lose to Bush in their head-to-head matchups.

Too bad there’s that pesky nomination business.....